A New Year Shines Bright – 2026 Outlook by Tara Seegers, CFP®, RLP®, MMP As you may have just read on Bloomberg – All Wall Street Analysts Now Predict A Stock Rally In 2026, and fundamentals support that view -the US economy expanded in the third quarter at the fastest pace in two years, bolstered by resilient consumer and business spending and calmer trade policies. And Corporate America is projected to post double-digit earnings growth again. While analyst projections don’t always play out, The global economy is forecast to generate “sturdy” growth of 2.8% in 2026, according to Goldman Sachs Research, with the most optimism (relative to consensus) tied to the US because of tax cuts, easier financial conditions, and reduced drag from tariffs. As a result of tax cuts, for example, consumers are expected to receive an extra $100 billion (0.4% of annual disposable income) in tax refunds in the first half of next year. Additionally, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research Economists project that the investment incentives and tax cuts from the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, including full-expensing for R&D and capital expenditures, are major factors to drive above-consensus US real GDP growth in 2026.
Beyond the US, global asset class forecasts illustrate importance in the overall playbook for long-term asset appreciation, and we see potential upside for global equities in 2026:
Return forecasts for 2026 with Consensus estimates for dividends. Data as of December 16th, 2025. Additionally, we have seen a broadening of sector and style-based returns globally in 2025 and expect this will continue into 2026. Generally, broadening performance is an indicator of market resiliency. The chart below visually communicates that total return is generated in various ways (earnings per share, dividend, price to earnings) and differs across sectors. Diversification can exist “under the hood” of an individual sector but is not guaranteed (note: IT whose return was generated almost entirely by earnings per share). Recognizing that these various total return contributors (earnings per share, dividend, price to earnings) impact our portfolio return in distinct ways over time can help us stay grounded in the importance of broad diversification and thoughtful allocations:
Beyond Equities, developed market fixed income returns are expected to be more constrained in 2026 even though yields are still high in comparison to the last decade. The reason to own these other investments still stands as valid portfolio construction discipline over the long-term. These non-equity investment types provide differentiated source of return, income generation, and tend to act as ballasts within the portfolio during periods of equity volatility. We focus on quality, tax-efficiency and diversification across these asset types.
For US fixed income, further potential rate cuts by the fed are anticipated in 2026. We expect this may impact 2027/28 bond pricing and 5-year treasury pricing but benefit longer-dated yields more positively. In our model portfolios, we own fixed income for the yield, for the differentiated source of return and for liquidity to rebalance in periods of dislocation. We generally do not get too concerned about pricing volatility prior to maturity, but we do monitor quality and rating changes with a close eye, and make changes in real-time as necessary. For Private Credit, we continue to evaluate the loans “under the hood” of our alternative holdings and watch particularly the diversification of lending across sectors. Overall, with a positive outlook for 2026, we expect this may offer investors attractive opportunities across asset classes in the US and Globally. 2025 reminded us that volatility can arrive at any point, but that staying the course long-term can yield meaningful returns in a risk-adjusted way. We use the capital markets to grow assets in a thoughtful, diversified way, and while we know it is only one way to invest, we believe it is one of the most efficient, accessible, and passive (low-effort) opportunities available to most individuals. We work hard to match your risk tolerance, time horizon and long-term goals to help you achieve the outcomes you desire. We aim to serve you well and walk alongside you as circumstances change - growing your capital for your benefit is why we show up every day. May your 2026 shine bright and bring you great satisfaction, growth, and opportunities for joy – Tara ### Exceptional. Wealth | Family Office is located at 618 N Tejon St, Colorado Springs CO 80903 and can be reached at 719-715-4003. |
A New Year Shines Bright - 2026 Outlook
January 02, 2026
